Estimate how long your savings could last if withdrawals start today. See your initial withdrawal rate and projected balance at your target age.
How long will your money last?
Example estimate
Fully funded period from today
17 years
First-year planned withdrawal rate
8%
Balance at age 90 · today’s USD
$0
Annual budget funded to age 90 · today’s USD
$23,270
204 complete monthly withdrawals are funded. The first shortfall is in month 205, at age 62 + 1 month.
Green: 7% nominal return. Gray dashed: 5% nominal return. Constant assumptions; no market volatility or success probability.
3.88% real annual return · monthly end-of-period withdrawals.
What withdrawal rate does this imply?
First-year portfolio need totals $40,000. 4.00 percentage points above the 4% reference. This is not a safety threshold.
The annual budget estimate includes your entered income and solves for monthly spending gaps through your target age. It is a model limit, not a recommended or safe spending amount. Future income is counted only after its start age.
View annual balances and spending gaps
Entered-return path · balances at period end; cash flows cover the interval since the previous row. A shortfall month adds a partial-year row. Zero after a shortfall means unfunded spending, not a recovered plan.
Age
Nominal balance
Balance · today’s USD
Income · today’s USD
Portfolio needed · today’s USD
Unfunded · today’s USD
Age 45
$500,000
$500,000
$0
$0
$0
Age 46
$493,072
$478,710
$0
$40,000
$0
Age 47
$484,401
$456,594
$0
$40,000
$0
Age 48
$473,827
$433,619
$0
$40,000
$0
Age 49
$461,179
$409,751
$0
$40,000
$0
Age 50
$446,270
$384,957
$0
$40,000
$0
Age 51
$428,903
$359,200
$0
$40,000
$0
Age 52
$408,862
$332,442
$0
$40,000
$0
Age 53
$385,915
$304,645
$0
$40,000
$0
Age 54
$359,816
$275,769
$0
$40,000
$0
Age 55
$330,296
$245,771
$0
$40,000
$0
Age 56
$297,069
$214,609
$0
$40,000
$0
Age 57
$259,825
$182,236
$0
$40,000
$0
Age 58
$218,233
$148,606
$0
$40,000
$0
Age 59
$171,936
$113,670
$0
$40,000
$0
Age 60
$120,552
$77,378
$0
$40,000
$0
Age 61
$63,667
$39,675
$0
$40,000
$0
Age 62
$842
$509
$0
$40,000
$0
Age 62 + 1 month
$0
$0
$0
$3,333
$2,823
Age 63
$0
$0
$0
$36,667
$36,667
Age 64
$0
$0
$0
$40,000
$40,000
Age 65
$0
$0
$0
$40,000
$40,000
Age 66
$0
$0
$0
$40,000
$40,000
Age 67
$0
$0
$0
$40,000
$40,000
Age 68
$0
$0
$0
$40,000
$40,000
Age 69
$0
$0
$0
$40,000
$40,000
Age 70
$0
$0
$0
$40,000
$40,000
Age 71
$0
$0
$0
$40,000
$40,000
Age 72
$0
$0
$0
$40,000
$40,000
Age 73
$0
$0
$0
$40,000
$40,000
Age 74
$0
$0
$0
$40,000
$40,000
Age 75
$0
$0
$0
$40,000
$40,000
Age 76
$0
$0
$0
$40,000
$40,000
Age 77
$0
$0
$0
$40,000
$40,000
Age 78
$0
$0
$0
$40,000
$40,000
Age 79
$0
$0
$0
$40,000
$40,000
Age 80
$0
$0
$0
$40,000
$40,000
Age 81
$0
$0
$0
$40,000
$40,000
Age 82
$0
$0
$0
$40,000
$40,000
Age 83
$0
$0
$0
$40,000
$40,000
Age 84
$0
$0
$0
$40,000
$40,000
Age 85
$0
$0
$0
$40,000
$40,000
Age 86
$0
$0
$0
$40,000
$40,000
Age 87
$0
$0
$0
$40,000
$40,000
Age 88
$0
$0
$0
$40,000
$40,000
Age 89
$0
$0
$0
$40,000
$40,000
Age 90
$0
$0
$0
$40,000
$40,000
Compare lower and higher return assumptions
Only nominal return changes, by 2 percentage points within the supported range. This is sensitivity arithmetic, not historical testing, a sequence-risk test, or a confidence interval.
Same spending, income, inflation and end age · today’s USD
Nominal return
First shortfall
Ending balance
Funded annual budget
5%
Age 59 + 4 months
$0
$16,617
7%
Age 62 + 1 month
$0
$23,270
9%
Age 66 + 10 months
$0
$30,785
Can you retire now? Check three numbers
Shortfall before your target age
Time covered204 / 540planned months funded
First-year portfolio need$40,000after available income
Remaining purchasing power$0at age 90
These describe this model, not your overall retirement readiness. Even a covered scenario needs separate checks for uncertain returns, healthcare, taxes, account access and the reliability of future income. The status compares the base case with the lower-return case; it is not a probability or an endorsement to stop working.
US healthcare costs
Budget for coverage after leaving work. Medicare eligibility is commonly at 65, separate from Social Security claiming, and does not remove all healthcare costs. Marketplace rules can count retirement-account withdrawals as income; this budget does not calculate subsidies.
One household, one age timeline
Keep assets, spending and income on the same individual or household basis. This version supports one Social Security stream and one pension stream. Separate spouses’ claiming dates and survivor changes need a more detailed plan.
Plan for the years ahead
A longer withdrawal period
A longer retirement asks the same portfolio to fund more payments. Changing only your target age does not change when an unchanged spending plan runs short; it changes whether the plan covers your goal and the budget that fits the full period.
Historical withdrawal research tests specific periods and investments. Cooley, Hubbard and Walz’s 1998 study used US stock and corporate-bond returns from 1926–1995 over 15–30-year periods. Its historical success rates are not probabilities for a 45-year early retirement. Morningstar’s 2025 research separately examines longer horizons using forward-looking assumptions. This calculator reproduces neither study’s market paths.
Losses early in retirement
Withdrawals during an early loss leave fewer assets invested for a recovery. Two return paths can contain the same gains and losses yet leave different balances once you withdraw along the way. Schwab explains this sequence-of-returns risk; Bengen’s original research also cautioned against relying on average returns and average inflation.
Our smooth curve does not simulate that risk. The lower-return line is another constant assumption, not a crash test. For a worked loss-first versus loss-last example, read the assumptions behind the 4% rule. A first-year rate below 4% is not proof that an early loss is affordable.
How this calculator works
Next month’s balance = current balance × (1 + real monthly return) − that month’s portfolio-funded spending
Return & purchasing power
Real annual return = (1 + nominal return) ÷ (1 + inflation) − 1. Monthly return is the twelfth root of the annual growth factor, minus 1. Spending stays level in today’s purchasing power; we do not inflate it again. The St. Louis Fed explains the exact real-rate conversion.
Monthly cash flow
Investment growth comes before the month-end withdrawal. Usable income reduces spending only after it starts; excess income is not saved. The first insufficient payment is a shortfall. Later benefits cannot repair that earlier gap, and zero after a shortfall represents missing funding.
Income timing
Social Security and pension have separate start ages. Monthly benefits are annualized internally. Inflation-adjusted payments retain purchasing power; unchecked payments stay fixed in nominal dollars after they start. Actual benefit rules can differ. We do not calculate benefit amounts or eligibility.
Budget to your target age
The solver finds the largest constant budget whose discounted monthly spending gaps fit your starting assets. It accounts for the income schedule, including years before benefits start. Inspect the payment timing, income formula and budget solver. Amounts are rounded for display.
Reproduce the default example
Hypothetical inputs: $500,000 portfolio, $40,000 annual spending, current age 45, target age 90, 7% nominal return, 3% inflation and no other income. The model uses monthly end-of-period withdrawals and no separately calculated taxes or fees.
Real annual return is 1.07 ÷ 1.03 − 1 = 3.883495%; the effective monthly real return is about 0.318003%.
The monthly portfolio need is $40,000 ÷ 12, or about $3,333.33. First-year withdrawals are 8% of the starting portfolio, 4 percentage points above the 4% reference.
The portfolio funds 204 complete monthly payments. Month 205 is the first shortfall, at age 62 + 1 month. The model does not claim an exact within-month depletion date.
With the same assumptions, a level annual budget of approximately $23,270 reaches age 90. This is a deterministic spending limit, not a safe withdrawal recommendation.
Same $500,000 portfolio, 7% nominal return, 3% inflation, no income · today’s USD
Withdrawal period
Target age from 45
Funded annual budget
30 years
75
$28,012
40 years
85
$24,394
45 years
90
$23,270
This fixed example is separate from your live inputs. Its table uses the independent monthly annuity formula, checked against the cash-flow engine.
Retirement withdrawal questions
Does this calculate a safe withdrawal rate?
No. The spending estimate solves a constant-return monthly cash-flow model for your chosen end age. It is not a historically tested safe rate or a success probability. A 4% comparison is context, not a pass/fail threshold.
Can I enter Social Security that starts later?
Yes. Enter a monthly spendable benefit in today’s purchasing power at the first payment and the age it starts. Payments begin at the end of the following month. An age at or below your current age means income is already available. No benefit is deducted before it begins, and later income cannot repair an earlier unfunded withdrawal.
What if the money does not run out before my target age?
The result says the budget is covered through that age under the entered assumptions and shows the remaining balance. It does not claim the money lasts forever or estimate a later depletion age beyond the modeled period.
How are taxes, fees, and account restrictions handled?
They are not calculated. Include expected withdrawal taxes and other cash costs in annual spending, enter income available after taxes, and use an investment return after ongoing investment fees. Avoid counting the same fee twice. Verify access to each retirement account separately.
Sources, limits, and maintenance
The monthly schedule and budget solver are disclosed model arithmetic. The sources below explain research context and omitted rules; they do not validate our forecasts or endorse this website. The 4% reference comes from historical withdrawal research, not from earning 4% each year or withdrawing 4% of each new balance.
Original research, reprinted by the Journal of Financial Planning in 2004. Historical US stock/bond portfolios and inflation-adjusted withdrawals; a constant average return is not its method.
Publisher-hosted study of 1926–1995 US stock and corporate-bond returns, 15–30-year payouts and multiple allocations. Historical success counts exclude taxes and transaction costs; they are not our success probabilities.
Forward-looking simulations, spending rules and horizon comparisons, including a 40-year horizon (page 51). Its portfolio assumptions and probabilities are not reproduced by this calculator.
Ordinary retirement benefits can typically begin at 62, subject to eligibility. Use your own benefit estimate and claiming age; this tool does not determine either.
Actual benefit adjustments follow CPI-based rules. Matching your entered inflation rate here is a simplification, not a forecast of a future COLA.
US healthcare, account-access, tax, fee and personal-inflation references are linked beside the relevant inputs and limits above.
How the arithmetic is checked
Independent annuity and nominal-dollar cash-flow checks cover positive, zero and negative returns, income starts, fixed nominal pensions, first shortfalls and the reverse budget. Examples and table totals are checked against the model. These are software and arithmetic checks, separate from professional financial review.
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